Can we make lockdown environmental benefits stick?

In response to the devastating pandemic caused by COVID-19, countries around the world have been going in and out of lockdown. Lockdowns restrict the activity of people and businesses, to the extent that if you're not required for the basic functioning of a supportive society, you are legally required to stay at home.

An example of what a family bubble might look like at the beginning of lockdown.

The lockdown means different things for different people. Introverts around the world are delighting in their newfound solitude. Others are struggling with separation from their friends and family, although many find solace in communication software and social media.

Some people are deeply affected by the lockdown. Many have lost their businesses or their jobs. Sadly, domestic violence has increased massively, as abused people are trapped with their abusers, who may have limited access to their normal coping mechanisms.

COVID-19 has not been a good experience for the world in general.

However, some lovely environmental stories have cropped up during lockdowns. The air is clearer due to reduced particle emissions from transport. The water in Venice is clear, no longer churned up into mud by tourists. Urban areas have seen more unusual visitors from the wild side.

Emissions have reduced around the world, too. China, our greatest carbon polluter, experienced a 25% drop in emissions at the beginning of the year. Flying internationally is no longer a viable option for a holiday, and many people are working from home rather than driving to work. The estimated reduction in daily global emissions reached 17% in April 2020, just under half of which was down to changes in transport options. Global emissions in April were similar to 2006 levels. That's how much emissions have increased in only 14 years. Depending on how quickly we beat this virus, and how quickly emission outputs return to normal, 2020 emissions should still be 4.2%-7.5% (at the time of writing) lower than they were otherwise predicted to be. If emissions decreased by that amount every year, climate change could be limited to only 1.5°C of warming.

Although we are using more power within our homes, the carbon savings we are making from reductions in air travel and surface transport easily make up for a slightly enlarged home footprint. The millions of cars that used to sit in traffic jams every day, pumping out carbon to keep their engines running so that they could occasionally surge forward by a few centimetres, are now parked at home. Office buildings and malls are no longer using their industrial-scale daytime heating or lighting systems.

But will it last?

The short answer is no. We cannot continue to function at this reduced level of output. Working from home has increased productivity for most, but for others (particularly parents) it has been a struggle. Some businesses cannot function without employees coming into work.

The environmental benefits are not all one-way, either. While emissions and physical impact on the environment may be low, restoration initiatives are also down. Confined to their homes, people cannot plant trees, control introduced pests, or conduct research.

COVID-19 has lead to the loss of lives, and the loss of jobs. Economies and individuals are struggling. For many, the world has been turned upside down. Desperate people cannot afford the luxury of caring about conservation: they need to feed themselves and their families, and keep a roof over their heads. Buying ethically-produced food, clothing, and other supplies is no longer a priority when you can't afford them.

However, this is still an opportunity to improve our response to climate change.

Economies around the world have been brought to their knees, and are desperate to stimulate their growth again. That growth needs to take low-carbon pathways where reasonably possible. Cashing in the environment is no longer wise: it is a finite resource.

Since surface transport accounted for nearly half of April's emissions decrease, countries need to explore ways of developing low-carbon transport options (such as improving cycleways) or alternatives. Working from home is a good way to shrink carbon footprints, plus your employees' wellbeing may be improved from the money they save and the control they have over their environment. Many work places are now using open-plan offices, which can be highly detrimental to wellbeing and productivity. Why not instead save money by letting people work at home?

Improving cycleways and safety and education surrounding cycling is good for both the climate and the health services.

The priority at the moment is to get people safe from the virus, and then to rebuild economies. However, governments need to be stick firmly to their carbon goals, and not be too lenient on industries which could rebuild faster if they sacrifice or delay greener protocols.

If we allow emissions to bounce back to their previous trajectory, we will have won one measly side-battle, while continuing to hurtle towards oblivion.


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